Friday, October 4, 2024

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Putin is struggling to prevent the consequences of war from hitting home.

After being sworn in as Russia’s President for the fifth time, Vladimir Putin removed Sergei Shoigu, his long-term Minister of Defence.

The appointment of Andrei Belousov, a civilian economist, as head of the Defence Ministry highlights Russia’s economic challenges in stabilising its economy and maintaining energy and defence production despite Western sanctions. Critics have questioned Mr. Shoigu’s planning and execution of the conflict, which Russia thought to be brief. Mr. Shoigu, who oversaw the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and Russia’s military participation in Syria since 2015, has close ties to the Kremlin and Russia’s defence industry. Despite initial defeats and a challenge from the late Wagner CEO Yevgeny Prigozhin, Mr. Putin supported Mr. Shoigu.

As Mr. Putin promises Russia victory in Ukraine, he has restructured the Defence Ministry and appointed a technocrat to focus on meeting military objectives swiftly.

This shift coincides with Russia’s growing military strength. Last week, it launched a new offensive in the northeast, reportedly aiming to attack Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city. Ukraine’s army is expected to get additional weaponry from the US, but it’s unclear if they’ll be sufficient to combat Russian aggression. Mr. Putin aims to win the conflict, but lacks a clear path to victory. The war has weakened Russia’s relations with the West, particularly with Europe, where Mr. Putin had hoped to establish significant commercial and energy links. It has also pushed Russia closer to China. At home, he has tightened control over the state and society, and is hostile to opposition.

The Kremlin is now preventing the effects of sanctions from reaching regular residents, but this may not be sustainable if the war continues indefinitely. Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s Black Sea coast and border towns have escalated the conflict’s costs. Mr. Putin appears to believe that the momentum is on his side, regardless of the hurdles. Even if his troops win additional victories in Ukraine, he will be governing over a Russia that is more oppressive, economically weak, isolated in the West, and engaged in a war of attrition with a permanent hostile neighbour.

Abhishek verma

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